Geopolitics · Research note · 24 Sep 2026
State capital arrived before the tonnage did
The US has signed or approved almost $40 billion of minerals deals since January 2025, and its net import reliance for rare earth compounds rose from 53% to 67%. What that gap means for anyone underwriting a critical minerals supply chain.
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Every number, and where it comes from
The first five figures in the note.
The full table has 8 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ~$40B | Value of minerals deals signed or approved by the US administration since January 2025, across 160 deals. Mixes loans, guarantees, equity, grants and offtake, across all minerals. Signed or approved, not disbursed. | White House fact sheet, 7 Aug 2026 |
| US$35.6M | Paid by the Department of War for approximately 10% of Trilogy Metals on a non-diluted basis, plus warrants. Alaska. Closed 11 Sep 2026. Part of the money bought existing shares from South32. | Trilogy Metals releases, 28 Aug and 11 Sep 2026 |
| $750M | Department of War investment through the IBAS program inside a $1.55B structure for Serra Verde's Pela Ema project in Brazil, including a $300M Defense Logistics Agency purchase commitment and a $565M DFC loan. A foreign mine. | US Department of War release, 24 Aug 2026 |
| +127% | Year-on-year rise in MP Materials' NdPr sales in Q2 2026, to 1,006 metric tons. Production was 840 tons, up 41%, so sales above production imply an inventory drawdown. | MP Materials Q2 2026 results, 6 Aug 2026 |
| $17.6M of $126.1M | Price-floor income under the July 2025 Department of Defense $110/kg NdPr guarantee, within MP Materials' Q2 2026 revenue and PPA income. About 14% of the top line. The 14% share is the author's calculation. | MP Materials Q2 2026 results, 6 Aug 2026 |
3 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.
Sources
7 primary releases.
- The White House, Fact sheet on critical minerals deals (7 Aug 2026)160 minerals deals totaling almost $40B signed or approved since January 2025. Mixes loans, guarantees, equity, grants and offtake; not a disbursement figure.whitehouse.gov
- US Department of War, IBAS investment in Serra Verde, Pela Ema project (24 Aug 2026)$750M through the IBAS program inside a $1.55B structure for Serra Verde's Pela Ema project in Brazil, including a $300M Defense Logistics Agency purchase commitment and a $565M DFC loan.war.gov
- Trilogy Metals, United States government investment and closing (28 Aug and 11 Sep 2026)US$35.6M for approximately 10% on a non-diluted basis, plus warrants, in Alaska. Part of the money buys existing shares from South32. Closed 11 Sep 2026.trilogymetals.com
- MP Materials, Second quarter 2026 results (6 Aug 2026)NdPr production 840 t, up 41%; sales 1,006 t, up 127%; revenue and PPA income $126.1M, of which PPA income $17.6M. $110/kg floor under the July 2025 Department of Defense agreement.investors.mpmaterials.com
- US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths (January 2026)Net import reliance for rare earth compounds and metals 67% in 2025 (estimate) against 53% in 2024. Import sources 2021 to 2024: China 71%, Malaysia 13%, Japan 5%, Estonia 5%.usgs.gov
- Reuters, China rare earth exports, January to August 2026, from customs data (8 Sep 2026)39,441 tons exported in January to August 2026, down 11.1% by volume year on year, with export value up 53.5%. Headline basket, not magnets; magnet breakdown due 20 Sep 2026.reuters.com
- Reuters, Chinese suppliers decline US rare earth orders (4 Sep 2026)A handful of Chinese suppliers have refused US shipments since early August 2026, according to anonymous sources.reuters.com