Research notes

Where capital moves, with the working shown.

Four-page notes on government capital: contracts, programs, approvals, and the money that follows them. Every figure carries its denominator and a link to the release it came from. One goes out most weekdays.

• Geopolitics 99 US trade-remedy notices from Commerce, 1 to 29 October 2026: 25 countries named, China in 30, India in 13, and two new duty orders among 51 administrative reviews 5 Nov 2026
• Signal of the week 10 FDA warning letters dated 1 October 2026 target unapproved herpes and chlamydia products, 2 of them to Amazon and Walmart; five sweep days carry 144 of 585 drug and biologic warning letters since October 2024 4 Nov 2026
• Deeptech and AI 66 federal AI contracts start in September 2026 across 16 agencies, $137,732,713 obligated: one Treasury order for ChatGPT licenses and tokens obligates $2,159,681 against a $487,034,681 ceiling 4 Nov 2026
• Deals Schneider Electric is paying $205 a share for PTC, 42% above the last close. In the three quarters before the bid, 13F filers holding PTC fell from 732 to 684 while 13F filers in the database rose from 7,405 to 7,979 3 Nov 2026
• Signal of the week 44 of the 136 contracts in Illinois DOT's 6 November 2026 letting name a bridge, while the federal Bridge Formula Program has had no fiscal 2027 money since 1 October 2026 2 Nov 2026
• 0 to 1 16 state job announcements, 1 to 19 October 2026: half promised fewer than 100 jobs, from 5 jobs at a Missouri body shop backed by $49,606 to 3,100 jobs at a Maryland shipyard backed by up to 13% of $3.7 billion 2 Nov 2026
• Signal of the week 112 Medicare Part B drug codes topped $100 million in 2024. October's international pricing rule expects to reach four manufacturers 30 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics Three of the ten US arms sales notices printed on 19 October 2026 are for Saudi Arabia; the $24.3 billion F-35 approval is not yet among them 29 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI A 122 gigawatt queue for gas turbines, and the 20 gigawatts India already owns 29 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week 46 FERC notices on natural gas pipeline, storage and LNG projects ran in the Federal Register from 1 September to 23 October 2026. On 15 October FERC proposed dropping air modeling from its environmental reviews 28 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI 9 governors signed executive orders on data centers between 29 April and 23 September 2026, and all 9 address who pays for the power 28 Oct 2026
• Deals The Pentagon offered Wolfspeed up to $1.5 billion in loans. The 42 Pentagon semiconductor award records in Svatantra.ai's signal database for fiscal 2026 add up to $26.8 million 27 Oct 2026
• 0 to 1 13 Homeland Security small-business R&D contracts start in September 2026: five Phase II contracts just under $1,000,000 each, eight Phase III contracts from $99,161 to $24,380,808 26 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week 46 storm repair projects on Texas highways listed since June 2026. 23 trace to the July 2025 floods, 14 months on. The July 2026 floods have 5 so far 26 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week 375 FAA airport grants worth $2.93 billion started in September 2026, as Washington asks for $10 billion more 23 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics 54 trade-remedy notices from India's DGTR in 45 days, and 46 of them name China 22 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics The Graham Act waiver and the Rubio visit: what the United States paused, and what it asked India for 22 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI 161 federal quantum awards in 45 days: the money below the $100 million headlines 21 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week $249.8 million in 37 emergency contracts: how Florida bought its Hurricane Isaias response before landfall 21 Oct 2026
• Deals Shionogi's $2 billion for IntraBio: the Medicaid line behind one rare-disease drug 20 Oct 2026
• 0 to 1 25 Education Department small-business R&D contracts start on 30 September 2026: every Phase I is $250,000, every Phase II is $1,000,000 19 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week 61 NIH R01 grants dated September 2026 carry $2 million or more each. 52 of them run to 2030 or later 19 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week 2,967 highway and transit grant award records of $400,000 or more in one quarter, under programs now authorized only to December 11 16 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics 32 economies, 95% of growth: the IMF's October 2026 outlook and what it means for India-facing capital 15 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics US customs duties net of refunds fell 11% in fiscal 2026, from $195 billion to $172 billion 15 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics 107 US federal awards to UK recipients last quarter; 95 were US Mint bullion orders to one London firm 15 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week 69 drugs are in shortage on the FDA's list, and 28 of them were first posted more than five years ago 14 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI GE Vernova's gas equipment under contract went from 55 GW to 116 GW in a year, against a target of 20 GW a year of turbine output 14 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI 15 US nuclear regulator notices in 60 days concern power and fuel plants that are not running yet 14 Oct 2026
• Deals 21 of 32 listed companies matched to federal award recipients lost institutional holders in the second quarter of 2026 13 Oct 2026
• Deals Private credit defaults: 0.8% of principal or 6.3% of issuers, depending on who counts 13 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics Licensed product, penalized crude: the US license for Russian diesel and what it means for India 13 Oct 2026
• 0 to 1 230 NASA small-business research contracts start on one day, 30 September 2026 12 Oct 2026
• Signal of the week US government signals rose 35% in September 2026; healthcare services 2.2 times its summer average 12 Oct 2026
• 0 to 1 Small businesses that adopted AI had about 7% more staff a year later than those that did not 12 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics Japan pledged up to $550 billion to the US: about $109 billion selected, about $6.9 billion in loans signed 8 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI China installed 354,000 industrial robots in 2025, 59% of the world total 7 Oct 2026
• Deals Global M&A fell 41% to $993 billion in Q3 2026; nine-month value of $3.9 trillion is the highest since 2001 6 Oct 2026
• 0 to 1 US business applications up 82% since August 2019; filings with planned wages down 15% 5 Oct 2026
• Geopolitics Washington as a shareholder, and Intel's paper loss 1 Oct 2026
• Deeptech and AI Humanoid robots now have units and a price 30 Sep 2026
• Deeptech and AI From pilot to a $776 million ceiling: how the largest US health system now buys AI 30 Sep 2026
• Deals The IPO window reopened and tenders grew anyway 29 Sep 2026
• Geopolitics Signaled, aimed at, arrived: the UAE's $25 billion intent for India against 26 years of recorded inflows 29 Sep 2026
• 0 to 1 The geography premium in early-stage valuations 28 Sep 2026
• Geopolitics A truce rolled, not resolved: two more months for the US-China regime, and India's $112 billion exposure 28 Sep 2026
• Deeptech and AI Two prices of thought: the frontier and the trailing curve 25 Sep 2026
• Geopolitics State capital arrived before the tonnage did 24 Sep 2026
• Geopolitics "Shall", not "may": the Russia sanctions law and India's crude 24 Sep 2026
• Deeptech and AI Nvidia's bottleneck moved from GPUs to memory 23 Sep 2026
• Deeptech and AI Fifty-six announcements, twelve projects, one investable layer 23 Sep 2026
• Deals Private equity is now its own best buyer 22 Sep 2026
• Deals Qatar split its sovereign fund. Here is what moved. 22 Sep 2026
• Geopolitics The Fed raised, Beijing held, and the rupee is paying 21 Sep 2026
• 0 to 1 The first check got rationed, not cut 21 Sep 2026