0 to 1 · Research note · 12 Oct 2026
Small businesses that adopted AI had about 7% more staff a year later than those that did not
On 10 September 2026 Gusto, a US payroll provider, published a study of 2,262 of its small-business customers. Those that adopted generative AI had headcount about 6.8% higher after four quarters than comparable firms that had not. For businesses with fewer than 10 employees the gap was about 10%. Gusto describes the result as associational. This note sets out the figures, the sample, a separate BLS series for context, and what the data does not show.
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Every number, and where it comes from
The first five figures in the note.
The full table has 11 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| About 7% (6.8%) | Higher headcount at Gusto small-business customers four quarters after adopting generative AI, relative to comparable firms that knew of AI but had not adopted | Gusto, 10 Sep 2026 |
| About 4.5% to about 6.8% | The same headcount gap as it built up to the end of the fourth quarter after adoption. Gusto does not name the quarter for the 4.5% | Gusto, 10 Sep 2026 |
| About 10% | Extra team growth at AI-adopting businesses with fewer than 10 employees, against comparable businesses that did not use AI | Gusto, 10 Sep 2026 |
| None measured | Headcount change associated with AI adoption among businesses with 10 to 24 employees | Gusto, 10 Sep 2026 |
| 19% | Headcount growth at AI-adopting community services businesses with fewer than 10 employees, relative to comparable non-adopters | Gusto, 10 Sep 2026 |
6 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.
Sources
3 primary releases.
- Gusto, AI and small business hiring, 2026 (Nich Tremper and Tom Bowen) (10 September 2026)"Businesses that use AI hire 7% more than those that don’t in the first year of using the technology" "by the end of the first year headcount is 6.8% greater than those who choose not to use AI." "That increase built gradually, climbing from about 4.5% to about 6.8% by the end of the fourth quarter." "Businesses with fewer than 10 employees grew their teams about 10% more than comparable businesses that didn’t use AI." "Larger businesses with 10-24 employees, for which we don’t measure any headcount change as a result of AI" "Community services businesses with fewer than 10 employees that adopted AI experienced 19% headcount growth" "We studied 1,593 businesses that reported using generative AI" "for a total of 2,262 businesses." "The findings are associational: they describe a consistent pattern, not proof that AI caused the hiring."gusto.com
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, Fourth Quarter 2025 (USDL-26-1268) (29 July 2026)"In the fourth quarter of 2025, there were 338,000 establishment births which accounted for 1,006,000 jobs." Table 8 of the same release (private sector, seasonally adjusted, levels in thousands): three months ended December 2015, 247 births, 892 employment at births; December 2025, 338 and 1,006.bls.gov
- Carta via SaaStr, The State of Seed Today: 10 Key Learnings from Carta's Latest Data (Jason Lemkin), a summary of Carta's Winter 2025 State of Seed report (12 December 2025)Secondary source, contesting evidence only: "Average seed-stage team size dropped to 6.2 employees in 2025, down from 10.3 in 2021." Carta's own report page was fetched on 9 October 2026 and does not show these two figures, so they rest on SaaStr's summary.saastr.com