Geopolitics · Research note · 24 Sep 2026
"Shall", not "may": the Russia sanctions law and India's crude
H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, was signed on 18 September. It requires the President to raise duties of up to 100 percent on the largest buyers of Russian crude and gas that keep buying. India has taken 37 percent of Russia's crude exports since the price cap began. What the statute actually requires, what India's refiners were already doing, and where the exposure sits.
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Every number, and where it comes from
The first five figures in the note.
The full table has 8 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Up to 100% | Ceiling on the ad valorem duty the President shall impose, within 30 days of enactment, on all goods from a country that was a top-five importer of Russian crude or gas in the prior twelve months and knowingly makes new purchases from about 18 Oct 2026. USTR must reset the rate to anything above zero and up to 100% on a written determination that a country has significantly increased, decreased or ceased purchases (Sec. 113(b)); a national-interest waiver exists (Sec. 115). | H.R. 5334 enrolled text, Sec. 113 and 115, govinfo.gov, enacted 18 Sep 2026 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Date H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, was signed into law. The White House summary describes it as authorizing and expanding statutory sanctions, tariffs and prohibitions on Russia. | The White House, 18 Sep 2026 |
| 86-11; 262-159 | Senate vote in August 2026 and House vote on 16 Sep 2026. | RFE/RL, 19 Sep 2026; Roll Call, 7 Aug 2026 |
| 37% | India's cumulative share of Russia's crude export volume from 5 Dec 2022, when the G7 price cap began, to end-August 2026; China 50%, Turkiye 5%, EU 5%. China plus India equals 87%, author's addition. In August 2026 alone India bought EUR 4.8 billion of Russian hydrocarbons, crude EUR 4.1 billion, second to China. | CREA, August 2026 monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions, 10 Sep 2026 |
| ~2.6 to ~1.9 mbpd | India's Russian crude imports: record of about 2.6 million barrels a day in June and July 2026, about 2.1 in August (down 16.5% on the month), preliminary September projection about 1.9. The 27% fall from the record is author's arithmetic. Russia supplied more than 40% of India's crude in August; total crude imports were 4.44 mbpd. | Kpler via Business Standard, 27 Aug 2026; Business Today citing Reuters and Kpler, 23 Sep 2026; ThePrint citing Kpler, 14 Sep 2026 |
3 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.
Sources
12 primary releases.
- U.S. Government Publishing Office, H.R. 5334, Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, enrolled bill (18 Sep 2026)Sec. 113: the President shall increase the rate of duty on all goods from a covered country to a rate of up to 100 percent ad valorem within 30 days; covered country defined by top-five importer status and new purchases after 30 days; Sec. 113(b) USTR rate adjustment; Sec. 115 waiver.govinfo.gov
- The White House, Congressional bill H.R. 5334 signed into law (18 Sep 2026)Authorizes and expands statutory sanctions, tariffs and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran.whitehouse.gov
- RFE/RL, Trump signs Russia sanctions bill (19 Sep 2026)Senate 86-11 in August; House 262-159 on 16 September.rferl.org
- Roll Call, Long-stalled Russia sanctions bill passed by Senate (7 Aug 2026)Senate passage on 7 August 2026.rollcall.com
- Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, August 2026 monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions (10 Sep 2026)Cumulative shares of Russia's crude export volume, 5 Dec 2022 to end-Aug 2026: China 50%, India 37%, Turkiye 5%, EU 5%. August 2026: India EUR 4.8 billion of Russian hydrocarbons, crude EUR 4.1 billion, 87% of its purchases.energyandcleanair.org
- Business Standard, Russia remains India's top crude supplier in August despite lower volumes (27 Aug 2026)Kpler: about 2.1 mbpd in August against records of about 2.6 mbpd in June and July; Russia more than 40% of imports.business-standard.com
- Business Today, India's imports of Russian crude fell in August; could fall further in September (23 Sep 2026)Russian crude down 16.5% on the month to about 2.1 mbpd; total imports 4.44 mbpd; Kpler preliminary September about 1.9 mbpd; refiners looking to spot markets for October and November.businesstoday.in
- ThePrint, India's Russian crude imports set to fall in September amid tighter supply (14 Sep 2026)Kpler: about 1.42 mbpd in the first 14 days of September, full-month projection 1.7 to 1.9 mbpd.theprint.in
- The White House, Fact sheet: the United States and India announce historic trade deal (9 Feb 2026)Reciprocal tariff on India lowered from 25% to 18%; additional 25% tariff removed in recognition of India's commitment to stop purchasing Russian Federation oil.whitehouse.gov
- ThePrint (PTI), India's oil import bill jumps 48% to nearly $75 billion in April-August (18 Sep 2026)PPAC Monthly Ready Reckoner: $74.8 billion against $50.4 billion, largely price-driven; 100.7 million tonnes against 101.1; Indian basket $90.19 against $69.11 a barrel; import dependence 88% on a consumption basis.theprint.in
- Business Standard (PTI), Jaishankar airs India's concerns over new tariff Act with Marco Rubio (23 Sep 2026)Jaishankar reiterated India's interests and concerns with regard to SRIA; New Delhi will take all necessary steps to protect its economic interests and ensure energy security.business-standard.com
- Baker McKenzie, US President signs Russia and Iran sanctions bill with new tariff powers (21 Sep 2026)30-day tariff deadline falls on 18 October 2026.sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com