Geopolitics · Research note · 1 Oct 2026
Washington as a shareholder, and Intel's paper loss
The US government paid $8.9 billion for 9.9% of Intel in August 2025 and that unsold stake was worth about $55 billion at the 24 September 2026 close. Founders taking federal money should read the instrument, not the headline.
Sent. Check your inbox.
If it is not there in a minute, look in Promotions or Updates and mark it as not spam so the next one lands in the inbox.
Every number, and where it comes from
The first five figures in the note.
The full table has 9 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| $8.9B | Paid by the US government for 433.3 million Intel shares at $20.47 in August 2025, a 9.9% stake. Funded by $5.7B of undisbursed CHIPS Act grants and $3.2B from the Secure Enclave program. | Intel newsroom, Intel and Trump Administration reach historic agreement, 22 Aug 2025 |
| ~$55B | Mark-to-market value of those same 433.3 million shares at Intel's 24 September 2026 close of $127.39. An unsold stake that moves with the share price. Author's calculation: shares times closing price. | Intel share price via stockanalysis.com, 25 Sep 2026; share count from Intel, 22 Aug 2025 |
| About 6.2x | Ratio of the about $55B mark to the $8.9B cost. Unrealized. Author's calculation. | Derived from Intel, 22 Aug 2025 and stockanalysis.com, 25 Sep 2026 |
| $12.5B | Non-cash loss Intel booked in the quarter ended 27 June 2026 on the net change in fair value of the escrowed shares, against a $15.6B derivative liability on 143 million unreleased shares. It reverses if the stock falls. | Intel Form 10-Q and Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), 23 Jul 2026 |
| $11.0B | GAAP net loss for the same quarter, $(2.16) per share, against non-GAAP EPS of $0.42. The $12.5B charge is excluded from non-GAAP results. | Intel Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K), 23 Jul 2026 |
4 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.
Sources
7 primary releases.
- Intel, Intel and Trump Administration reach historic agreement to accelerate American technology and manufacturing leadership (22 Aug 2025)$8.9B for 433.3 million shares at $20.47, a 9.9% stake; funded by $5.7B of undisbursed CHIPS Act grants and $3.2B from the Secure Enclave program; passive ownership with no board representation; five-year warrant for an additional 5% at $20, exercisable only if Intel ceases to own at least 51% of the foundry business.newsroom.intel.com
- Intel, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) (23 Jul 2026)$12.5B ($12,529M) mark-to-market loss on Escrowed Shares under the CHIPS Act Secure Enclave agreement, a component of interest and other, net; derivative liability of $15.6B on 143 million unreleased shares at 27 June 2026; GAAP net loss attributable to Intel $11.0B ($11,033M), $(2.16) per share; non-GAAP EPS $0.42; revenue $16.1B ($16,128M), up 25%. Earnings release: https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1776/intel-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-resultssec.gov
- Intel, Prospectus supplement (Form 424B7) registering potential resale by the Department of Commerce, as summarized by Investing.com (5 Sep 2025)Up to 673,839,150 shares registered for potential resale by the Department of Commerce: 274,583,000 common shares issued, 158,740,000 escrowed shares and a warrant for 240,516,150 shares at $20.00. Registration does not itself constitute a sale. Primary filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000050863/000005086325000145/a09052025424b7.htminvesting.com
- stockanalysis.com, Intel Corporation (INTC) share price history (25 Sep 2026)Intel closed at $127.39 on 24 September 2026. Used with the 433.3 million share count to reach the about $55B mark-to-market value and the about 6.2 times ratio to cost. Re-check before publication.stockanalysis.com
- Council on Foreign Relations, Washington's growing portfolio: tracking US government investments (30 Jul 2026)$27.7B announced across 39 deals from January 2025 to publication on 30 July 2026; Commerce party to 24, Defense 9, the Development Finance Corporation 6, Energy 2, with agency counts overlapping so they do not sum to 39.cfr.org
- Fortune, The U.S. government invested $27 billion in corporate stakes. Good luck finding them (26 Jul 2026)About $26.7B across 30 equity or quasi-equity deals on a different tally, and the observation that the Intel position's rise (from $8.9B to about $42B at the time) appears in no budget document. Included as the counterweight to the CFR count used here.fortune.com
- NIST, US Department of Commerce, Department of Commerce announces letters of intent to 9 companies for $2 billion (21 May 2026)$2.013B in CHIPS R&D incentives: IBM $1B, GlobalFoundries $375M, D-Wave, Atom Computing, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum and Quantinuum $100M each, Rigetti up to $100M, Diraq up to $38M. The Department receives a minority, non-controlling equity stake in each company as a condition of funding.nist.gov