Geopolitics · Research note · 28 Sep 2026
A truce rolled, not resolved: two more months for the US-China regime, and India's $112 billion exposure
On 23 September 2026 the United States and China extended the Busan trade truce from 10 November to 10 January 2027, with tariffs left at 36.5 percent on Chinese goods and 31 percent on American ones. India, whose deficit with China reached a record $112.6 billion in the year to March 2026, is exposed on both sides of that calendar.
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Every number, and where it comes from
The first five figures in the note.
The full table has 9 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2027 | New expiry of the Busan trade truce, extended on 23 September 2026 from 10 November 2026. Conditions unchanged: China suspends retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures, pauses rare earth export controls and buys 25 million metric tons of soybeans over three years. | US Treasury Secretary Bessent, via Supply Chain Dive, 24 Sep 2026 |
| 36.5% | Average tariff facing Chinese goods entering the United States, unchanged by the extension. | Al Jazeera, 24 Sep 2026, citing a Congressional Research Service report of July 2026 |
| 31% | Average tariff facing US goods entering China, unchanged by the extension. | Al Jazeera, 24 Sep 2026, citing a Congressional Research Service report of July 2026 |
| $17B | Value of other agricultural purchase commitments Bessent said China is a little behind schedule on, beyond the 25 million metric tons of soybeans. | Bessent, quoted by Supply Chain Dive, 24 Sep 2026 |
| $30B+ | Value of products covered by a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework under discussion during the visit. Discussed, not signed. | OPB carrying NPR, 23 Sep 2026 |
4 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.
Sources
7 primary releases.
- Supply Chain Dive, US, China to extend trade war truce by 2 months (24 Sep 2026)Bessent, who met with China Vice Premier He Lifeng this week, said that the conditions of the trade truce would stay in effect until Jan. 10, 2027. China agreed to suspend any retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures, pause implementation of export controls on rare earths and buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans over the ensuing three years. About $17 billion of other ag commitments a little behind schedule.supplychaindive.com
- Al Jazeera, Hostile but hooked: what's behind the US-China trade truce extension (24 Sep 2026)Chinese goods entering the US face tariffs of 36.5 percent; US goods entering China are taxed at 31 percent (citing a July 2026 CRS report). First Chinese state visit to the US in 11 years. Rare earth restrictions delayed to 10 January.aljazeera.com
- Farm Policy News (University of Illinois), carrying AP, US, China extend trade truce until January as Xi arrives in US (24 Sep 2026)Bessent: I don't know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don't know whether we will just roll the current deal. Summits in China in November and Florida in December.farmpolicynews.illinois.edu
- Council on Foreign Relations, James M. Lindsay, Xi Jinping visits the White House (23 Sep 2026)Third in-person Trump-Xi meeting in eleven months; AI guardrail talks agreed in May only began this week; next meeting on the margins of APEC in Shenzhen in November, then the G20 at Doral in December.cfr.org
- OPB, carrying NPR, Trump and Xi meet at a moment of global consequence (23 Sep 2026)Among the discussions is a reciprocal tariff reduction framework on products worth $30 billion or more. In May the US said China agreed to purchase American beef, soybeans and 200 Boeing jets.opb.org
- CBS News, Live updates: Trump hosts Xi Jinping for state visit (24 Sep 2026)USTR Jamieson Greer said there will be an announcement establishing a US-China Board of Trade, which will determine a relatively small subset of goods the two countries agree to protect from trade disputes. Bessent: open to just continuing the Busan arrangement, or examining the bigger deal.cbsnews.com
- Business Standard, China becomes India's top trade partner in FY26, deficit widens to $112 bn (15 Apr 2026)Bilateral trade with China $151.1 billion; deficit an all-time high of $112.6 billion in 2025-26 against $99.2 billion in 2024-25; exports to China up 36.66 percent to $19.47 billion, imports up 16 percent to $131.63 billion; exports to the US up 0.92 percent to $87.3 billion, imports up 15.95 percent to $52.9 billion, surplus $34.4 billion. Commerce ministry data.business-standard.com