Geopolitics · Research note · 15 Oct 2026
US customs duties net of refunds fell 11% in fiscal 2026, from $195 billion to $172 billion
On 8 October 2026 the Congressional Budget Office published its Monthly Budget Review for the whole of fiscal year 2026. It estimates customs duties, net of refunds, at $172 billion, against $195 billion in fiscal year 2025, and says about $130 billion was issued in refunds for tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This note sets out the CBO figures, the arithmetic applied to them, and what they do not show.
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Every number, and where it comes from
The first five figures in the note.
The full table has 19 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.
| Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| $172B | US customs duties (including tariffs), net of refunds, fiscal year 2026, preliminary CBO estimate | CBO, Monthly Budget Review: September 2026, 8 Oct 2026 |
| $195B | US customs duties (including tariffs), net of refunds, fiscal year 2025, actual | CBO, Monthly Budget Review: September 2026, 8 Oct 2026 |
| -$22B, -11% | Change in customs duties, FY2025 to FY2026, as stated by CBO. The rounded levels differ by 23; CBO's figure is used | CBO, Monthly Budget Review: September 2026, 8 Oct 2026 |
| About $130B | Refunds issued during fiscal year 2026 for tariffs collected under IEEPA, CBO estimate | CBO, Monthly Budget Review: September 2026, 8 Oct 2026 |
| Roughly $300B | FY2026 customs collections before IEEPA refunds. Author's arithmetic: 172 + 130 = 302. Not a CBO figure. Some refunded duties were collected in FY2025 | Derived from CBO, Monthly Budget Review: September 2026, 8 Oct 2026 |
14 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.
Sources
3 primary releases.
- Congressional Budget Office, Monthly Budget Review: September 2026 (8 October 2026)"Collections of customs duties dropped by $22 billion (or 11 percent) relative to the year before." "CBO estimates that during fiscal year 2026 about $130 billion was issued in refunds for tariffs collected under IEEPA." "The refunds were made as a result of a February 2026 decision of the Supreme Court." Table 2 row: "Customs Duties (Including tariffs) 195 172 -22 -11". Table 1 row: "Deficit (-) -1,775 -1,993 -218". On September: customs duties "declined by $24 billion (or 83 percent)".cbo.gov
- Congressional Budget Office, Monthly Budget Review: August 2026 (9 September 2026)"Through August, CBO estimates, about $110 billion had been issued in refunds for tariffs collected under IEEPA." Table 2 row: "Customs Duties (Including tariffs) 165 167 1 1". Footnote: "Learning Res., Inc. v. Trump, Nos. 24-1287, 25-250, slip op. (S. Ct. Feb. 20, 2026)."cbo.gov
- Congressional Budget Office, CBO's Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026 (CBO Blog, Phill Swagel) (20 August 2026)"On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that the Administration could not impose tariffs under IEEPA authority." "The Administration imposed new tariffs after the decision, but they are projected to raise less revenue." "We estimate that the effective tariff rate (ETR) is now 10 percent, 5 percentage points lower than our estimate for November 2025." "We estimated that the ETR in 2024 was 2 percent and that it increased to 15 percent by November 2025." Sentence opening as returned:; "Most of the $166 billion in revenue collected under IEEPA will be refunded in fiscal year 2026".cbo.gov