Geopolitics · Research note · 22 Oct 2026

The Graham Act waiver and the Rubio visit: what the United States paused, and what it asked India for

On 16 October 2026 the President waived, with no expiry date, the tariff of up to 100% that the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act required within 30 days on the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas. Two days later the deadline passed with nothing due. On 20 and 21 October, during a visit running to 22 October, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Mumbai and at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery, pressing India to buy more American fuel and calling the bilateral trade deal 'very, very close'. This note sets out the law, the order, India's Russian crude volumes, the tariff India actually pays now, the $500 billion purchase pledge, the visit, and what the record does not show.

By Jayprakash Mistry, Founder, Svatantra.ai

Every number, and where it comes from

The first five figures in the note.

The full table has 16 rows. Each figure is as published on the date shown, with its denominator.

Figure	What it measures	Source
Up to 100%	Ceiling of the ad valorem duty Sec. 113 directs on goods from countries among the five largest importers by volume of Russian-origin crude oil or natural gas	Public Law 119-111 (H.R. 5334), Sec. 113, approved 18 Sep 2026, govinfo.gov
30 days	Deadline for the Sec. 113 duties, counted from enactment on 18 Sep 2026; the 30th day was 18 Oct 2026	Public Law 119-111, Sec. 113(a); day count is author's arithmetic
16 Oct 2026	Date of the executive order implementing the Act and waiving the Sec. 112 and 113 duties and Secs. 102(a), 102(d), 102(e), 103 to 111 and 117, under Sec. 115(a), after a national-interest certification to Congress	The White House, executive order of 16 Oct 2026
No expiry	Sec. 4(d) of the order: the waivers remain in effect until the President or the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, determines otherwise	The White House, executive order of 16 Oct 2026
86-11	Senate vote on passage of H.R. 5334, as amended, on 7 Aug 2026 (roll call vote 224, 119th Congress, 2nd session: 86 yea, 11 nay, 3 not voting)	US Senate roll call vote 119-2-224; also cited by Sen. Thom Tillis via AP, carried by Al Jazeera, 17 Oct 2026

11 more figures in the PDF, each with its source.

Sources

25 primary releases.

The White House, Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (executive order) (16 October 2026)
Quote: "Pursuant to section 115(a) of the Graham Act, I hereby waive the application of any duties ... provided for in sections 112 and 113 of the Graham Act or this order." Sec. 4(d): "The waivers described in subsections (a) through (c) of this section shall remain in effect ... until such time as the President or the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury" determines otherwise. Sec. 1: "On September 18, 2026, I signed the Graham Act into law."
whitehouse.gov
govinfo.gov, Public Law 119-111, Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (H.R. 5334) (18 September 2026)
Quote, Sec. 113(a): "Not later than 30 days after the date of the enactment of this Act ... to a rate of up to 100 percent ad valorem." Sec. 113(c)(1)(B): "was among the 5 largest importers, by total volume, of crude oil or natural gas that originated in the Russian Federation." Sec. 115(a): "The President may, subject to subsection (b), waive the application of any sanctions provision." "Approved September 18, 2026."
govinfo.gov
Al Jazeera, carrying AP, Trump faces bipartisan backlash over Russia sanctions waiver (17 October 2026)
Sen. Thom Tillis: "What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisers not understand?" Zelenskyy: "Financial rewards for Putin - all of this only encourages him to keep attacking."
aljazeera.com
United States Senate, Roll call vote 119-2-224, on passage of H.R. 5334 as amended (Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026) (7 August 2026)
Tally: 86 yea, 11 nay, 3 not voting. Measure title refers to sanctions on the Russian Federation; the bill-number description on the page is a leftover from the vehicle bill.
senate.gov
RFE/RL, Trump waives Graham Act sanctions on Russia (17 October 2026)
Sen. Richard Blumenthal: "These waivers have nothing to do with our national security, and everything to do with sucking up to Vladimir Putin." The law authorizes "tariffs of up to 100 percent on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India."
rferl.org
Outlook India, Putin envoy Dmitriev on the Trump Russia sanctions waiver (17 October 2026)
Kirill Dmitriev on X: "The Trump administration's suspension of the Graham Act is an important and truly historic moment."
outlookindia.com
ETV Bharat, on Kpler ship-tracking, India's Russian oil imports fall 29 percent from July peak as Chinese demand rises (14 October 2026)
Quote: "India took around 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in September"; "The figure is down from 2.6 million bpd in June and 2.57 million bpd in July"; "October imports are expected to hold at around 1.8-1.9 million bpd".
etvbharat.com
TASS, citing Times of India and Kpler, Oil imports from Russia to India reached 1.82 million barrels per day in September (15 October 2026)
Quote: "oil imports from Russia to India reached 1.82 million barrels per day in September"; Russia "remained the largest supplier of crude oil to India in September 2026".
tass.com
The White House, Fact Sheet: The United States and India Announce Historic Trade Deal (9 February 2026)
Quote: "President Trump agreed to remove the additional 25% tariff on imports from India" "in recognition of India's commitment to stop purchasing Russian Federation oil." The United States "will lower the Reciprocal Tariff on India from 25% to 18%."
whitehouse.gov
The White House, United States-India Joint Statement (6 February 2026)
Quote: "India intends to purchase $500 billion of U.S. energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts..." "over the next 5 years." "The United States will apply a reciprocal tariff rate of 18 percent under Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025".
whitehouse.gov
KPMG TaxNewsFlash, United States removes tariffs on imports from India (February 2026)
The 6 Feb 2026 order is "eliminating the additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25% on imports of articles from India, effective February 7, 2026," tied to "India's commitment to cease importing Russian oil and to expand defense cooperation with the United States."
kpmg.com
NewsOnAir (Prasar Bharati), carrying PIB, White House says India to face temporary 10 per cent tariff after new US order (21 February 2026)
Quote: "the applicable rate for India would fall to 10 per cent under the new Section 122 authority."
newsonair.gov.in
EY Tax News, USTR takes final action imposing tariffs on 60 trading partners as Section 122 tariffs expire (24 July 2026)
The Section 122 tariffs "reach their 150-day statutory sunset at 12:01 a.m. on July 24, 2026." "On July 23, 2026, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) took final action"; India is in the 10% tier (proposed 12.5%, lowered in the final action); duties apply to goods entered "on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on July 24, 2026".
taxnews.ey.com
IEEFA, Shifting trade relations: India-US trade ties are more strategically balanced (11 June 2026)
Quote: "India's crude oil imports from the US jumped by about 50% in a single year." "Bilateral trade crossed USD140 billion in FY2025-26." Reported figures: crude imports from the US USD 9.9 billion in FY2025-26 from USD 6.6 billion; Indian exports about USD 87.3 billion and imports about USD 53.5 billion.
ieefa.org
Fortune, carrying AP, Marco Rubio in India: trade talks, tariffs and Russian oil (20 October 2026)
Rubio: "We're very, very close. I would say we're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement," and "I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly." Also: countries like India "have voluntarily diversified their energy portfolio" but "are still getting a substantial amount of energy from Russia because it's hard to pivot from one day to the next". The diversification remarks were made on Saturday 17 October in the United States, before the trip.
fortune.com
The Week, 'Will happen shortly': what Marco Rubio said on the trade deal with India, oil refinery and energy (21 October 2026)
Rubio: "India is a refining superpower. They have the ability to do that, and they have companies that know how to do that"; "Energy is related to national security. Countries fight wars over energy; economies collapse over lack of energy."
theweek.in
Business Standard, Rubio meets Jaishankar in Mumbai, pushes for early India-US trade deal (21 October 2026)
Quote: "Rubio is visiting India from October 20 to 21. It is his second in five months." "He urged the Indian government to expand fuel purchases from the US and Venezuela." "Rubio is scheduled to meet Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and Tata Sons Chairman N Chandrasekaran in Mumbai" "before travelling to Jamnagar, where he is due to tour Reliance Industries' refinery."
business-standard.com
Business Today, Rubio at Jamnagar complex: Sergio Gor flags Reliance's investment in first new US refinery in 50 years (21 October 2026)
Ambassador Gor: "Reliance's planned investment in the first new U.S. oil refinery in 50 years" "is another major opportunity to expand American energy production and create jobs."
businesstoday.in
The Tribune, carrying ANI, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leaves Mumbai for Jamnagar; enhanced energy cooperation talks on agenda (21 October 2026)
MEA: the two sides "welcomed the progress made in negotiations on the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)" and "reaffirmed their commitment to working towards its early conclusion." State Department: "This visit underscores our commitment to commercial investment, energy cooperation".
tribuneindia.com
Organiser, citing Bloomberg, India-US trade deal is 'pretty close', says Trump (21 October 2026)
Quote: "They want to make a deal. We're going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah," Bloomberg quoted Trump as telling reporters at the White House on October 20; the agreement "could be a much different kind of deal".
organiser.org
Clyde & Co, OFAC authorizes US imports of Russian diesel (General License 135) (13 October 2026)
Quote: "On October 9, 2026, OFAC issued General License 135" authorizing transactions "related to the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including into the US of Russian-origin diesel fuel" "through April 7, 2027".
clydeco.com
ThePrint, carrying PTI, Rubio meets Adani, Tata chiefs before heading to Jamnagar for Reliance refinery visit (21 October 2026)
Quote: Rubio "met Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani and Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran in Mumbai on Wednesday morning." Neither side released details of the meetings.
theprint.in
Outlook India, Marco Rubio India visit: schedule, trade deal, Russian oil and defence talks (20 October 2026)
Quote: "Rubio's India leg runs from October 20 to 22, taking him to Mumbai and Jamnagar in Gujarat rather than New Delhi."
outlookindia.com
K&L Gates, Summary: Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs (20 February 2026)
Quote: "On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court (the Court) issued its decision in" Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump; "The Court held that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs".
klgates.com
The Tribune, carrying ANI, 'Going to make a deal... pretty close': Trump confirms US-India trade deal finalisation soon (21 October 2026)
Quote: "They want to make a deal. We're going to make a deal. Pretty close, yeah," at a news briefing in Washington on Tuesday 20 October (local time).
tribuneindia.com